Analysts are braced for a $17.3 trillion oil price upheaval that could send shockwaves through the bitcoin price and crypto

The US arrested Venezuelan President Nikolas Maduro on the 3rd, prompting immediate market projections of a short-term rise in international oil prices. Financial markets also anticipate increased demand for safe assets,

Oil prices settled lower on Friday on the first trading day of 2026 after registering their biggest annual loss since 2020, as investors weighed oversupply concerns against geopolitical risks, including the war in Ukraine and Venezuela exports.

There’s a record 1.4 billion barrels of crude currently on the world’s oceans, pushing down benchmark prices and sending gasoline under $3 a gallon at the pump in the US.

The world is producing more oil than it needs, so 2026 prices are expected to be lower. The question is how low a barrel will get. “$50 to $60 range is what most are seeing. Now some are calling for prices to dip into the $40s,” said Garrett Golding with the Dallas Fed.